Musings on luck

Hi all,

I've always liked the phrase "luck favors the prepared", especially when I head back to Seattle and hand out one of my favorite joke souvenirs:  There's a novelty shop in Harajuku that sells good luck charms just like the ones available at every temple in the country--except they have a condom inside of them.  "Luck favors the prepared", get it???  Man I'm funny

But lately I've been thinking that there's another important ingredient:  The ability to recognize luck when it happens.  I'm a probstat guy, so I know that "miraculous" things happen all the time--hell, iterate a surprisingly few number of times and the so-called "miracles" are actually more probable (only 23 times, to give a classic example).  Luck isn't all that lucky, when you think of it that way

It was certainly a decent amount of luck that had everything in my life fall into (or out of, depending on how you look at it) place to have nothing tying me down to Seattle while I had enough in my bank account to support a move and a month-to-month lease on my apartment and a basement at my family's house to store all my stuff (thanks Mom!).  But I like think it was a little bit of personal acumen that led me to take that and say, "hey!  I've wanted to live in Tokyo for pretty much my entire life, why don't I go do that?" . . . a decision that I'm hopeful is going to be one of the best I've ever made

Similarly, today, it was nothing but luck that had me wandering through the suburbs of Tokyo when I stumbled across the quintisential Tokyo suburb scene:  A little brook lined with greenery, cute little bridge, sunshine shining through the trees, and a train crossing just down the road

I feel like if I come back here on a rainy day, I'll see Totoro hanging out at the bus stop

It was lucky that I showed up there, but I like to think there was a little bit of personal acumen involved in the decision to spread my jacket on a rock, pull out a book, and spend an hour enjoying the sun and the trees and the water.  Perfect way to spend the afternoon

"Luck favors the prepared" is a good saying, I won't stop using it.  But there are other good sayings as well.  To steal one from Neal Stephenson's Cryptonomicon:  "As to luck, there is the old miner's proverb:  'Gold is where you find it.'"

Noah out